The Age long Iran Myth,

I have to point out that the situations in Egypt and Iran are very differernt. Iran has very powerful, respected and centralised religious intstitutions that where capable of consolidating power very easily following the revolution. This is not true for Egypt. In Egypt the main religious institution (Al Azhar) is no longer as powerful or as respected as it was in the past, mainly because of its government affiliation.

The Notorious Muslim brotherhood on the other hand is not as powerful and organised as most people believe. Believe it or not most people know nothing about it except its name and that it calls for Islam as a solution. It's members (Ikwangia) are considered suspicious by most of the population and are thought of as religious fanatics.

Yes, Egyptians hold religion in high regard, however many tend to think of religion as a personal or family matter. There is no centralised religious establishment that most people look up to.

Most Egyptians want a change in government for the following reasons :
1. Improvement of their quality of life.
2. Respect for their humanity and dignity.

They'll support any government that gives them just that.

Besides as I mentioned before the movements pushing for change are actually calling for structural reform, i.e. the formation of the basic institutions (and constitution) on which future governments could formed. This certainly would (hopefully) guarantee that it wouldn't be a "one man, one vote, one time".

Mubarak has remained in power for as long as he has through convincing the West (the US in particular) and his own people(!!!) that an alternative to him is an (Iran style Islamic theocracy). That is a myth and its about time it should end.

It is true that the Muslim Brotherhood is well organised, but it doesn't have the power or popularity enabling it to grab power and impose a dictatorship.

Big Pharaoh.

Big Pharaoh (aka GM) is one of my favourite bloggers. I love his style and happen to agree with most of what he has to say. I've posted a comment to one of his posts regarding Mubarak's 5th presidential nomination. He was kind enough to answer me back in an entire post. Due to space limitations I prefered to respond on my blog.

Here is my response to your post:

GM I understand your concerns. I'd like to clarify a few points though.

"You are treating "liberalism" as if it is a dogma, an ideology, or a creed."

GM, liberalism is actually an ideology and it runs counter to conservatism on the political spectrum of most democracies. Its politics favour multiculturalism, freedom of speech and press, tolerance and are opposed to nationalism. Economically liberalism advocates free market and free trade while allowing limited government intervention.

I think what you mean by liberalism here is civil liberties and individual rights. Liberalism vehemently advocates civil liberties though, but the two terms aren't interchangeable. Personally I agree that civil liberterties and idividual rights should be an important part of any future egyptian constitution.

"However, Islamists and the Muslim Brotherhood do not believe in the above principles even if they are pretending to believe in them today."

The Muslim Brotherhood are not as stringent as they where in the past, and judging by their active involvement with Kefaya, they seem to be willing to accept the concept of representative democracy. Contrary to popular belief though the Muslim brotherhood are not as united as they once where. Now they are more or less fragmented, with more calling for moderation and reform of religious concepts. You have to acknowledge that the key players of the Muslim Brotherhood are highly educated people who may be conservative but are not extremists. Don't get me wrong, i'm more or less a liberal myself.

"All what I am hoping for is this: Mubarak gets his fifth term then he lifts his hands off liberals so that they appear on Egypt' political scene. We will then hold free fair elections once they appear and become strong enough to compete with the Islamists."

GM, believe me, Mubarak and his cronies have no intention whatsoever of giving any breathing space, neither to the Muslim Brotherhood nor to the Liberals. He and his gang understand very well that doing so is like giving the rope to person who's bent on hanging you. Not in one nor ten terms will he change his politics. He'll continue his underhanded tactics of suppression. Besides I think the fact that Mubarak is getting his fifth term is defacto by now. We shouldn't offer him any support whatsoever though.

"Democracy is like a medicine, you take it gradually. If you took it all at once, you die."

Looking at the history of the world, the best transformations to democracy in history where radical. In our part of the world the only possible way out of tyranny is through surgery not medicine.

"You are putting the word "liberal" beside and word "islamist" as if they are too competing thoughts or ideologies."

Infact they are two competing ideologies, especially here in Egypt. However they could possibly coexist within a system of representative democracy as two parties. Mubarak wouldn't allow that though.

"What you are saying above is what the "book" says. The "book" says "people should choose", period. I do not object to that, I long for the day when Egyptians get the chance to choose their own future; however, we need to look at realities on the ground. Egypt's dictatorship literally wiped all liberals out of the political scene; it would lead to an utter disaster if we simply kicked Mubarak out and allowed a free ballot box in such an unfair political arena."

The solution here would be to reeducate the general public and advocate democracy. Movements like Kefaya are trying to do just that. No one stream of politics in egypt should be disrespected or alienated. Thanks to Nassers gang this country has no political spectrum, its about time we get one, whatever the cost. Desperate times call for desperate measrues, and judging by history only radical change can transform societies, a step by step aproach won't work here.

"Can you guarantee that there will be this second chance? Was there a second chance in Iran?"

You never can tell GM, but you should have more faith in your countrymen. Then again I think Iran is in the process of undergoing a second change again soon. Besides you have to consider the forces that are actually pushing for change in Egypt. These forces are mainly the Liberals (Ayman Nour, Saad el din Ibrahim, etc.) and Kifaya which is actually lead by a christian (Dr. George Isaac) and which is a representative of much of egypts truly independent opposition (including the MB). Kefaya actually advocates a modern representative democratic constitution and civil liberties. These are good signs GM, when compared to Iran prior to the colapse of the Shah regime. GM the english say "no pain, no gain", they also say "you can't win the lottery without buying a ticket."

It's about time we egyptian got over our fears and stop mubmling about what should be done and start doing it.

About the Asyllum thing, after 9/11 I don't think many countries would be willing to take us in anyway ;-). So lets just wait and see how things work out.

What people in Egypt want, and what they should get.

Today at my university I overheared a bunch of guys talking about politics. I've known the guys from before, and they wheren't religious extremist or anything so I thought i'd join in. This is how it went:

guy A:" You know, the reason the arab world is so backward is because we as muslims have lost our way." (huh?)

guy B: "That's right. Once we muslims turn back to our religion, we'll become the greatest nation, just like we where at the time of the Khilafa. (The Khalifat Muslim empire of the middle ages.)"

Me : "Could you please explain that last part to me, how in the world is we becoming better muslims and more devout going to bring growth (let alone greatness) to our country?"

guy A : "Islam is the solution my brother"

Me : "I got that part already, but how??"

guy B : "The solution to all our problems is in an Islamic government, one that rule s in the name of God and his prophet"

Me : "What is the structure of this government, how is it supposed to function?"

guy A: "Structure, what structure? We want a government based on Khilafa and Sharia. Like the one that we had at the time of the great Islamic empire."

Me : "But that was a middle age Empire, the world has changed since?"

guy A : "No, no, Its fit for all times and all ages." (oh dear!)

Me : "ehm, OK"

guy B :"What do you think?"

Me : "Well,i think the only way we as Arabs could advance is through decent democratic governing. A competetive multiparty system, where we could vote the type of government we think would work into power."

guy A : "You mean a secular government?"

Me : "I'm not talking about the government, i'm talking about the framework, the constitution."

guy B : "But where is Islam, in what you are saying?"

Me : "You could vote an Islamic party into power if you wanted?"

guy A " This is not the Islamic government we had in mind, it seem like a western secular government with seperation of islam and state to me."

Me : "That's not what I said."

guy B : " No, Islam is the solution." (oh brother)

Me : "So what you're saying is that you wan't a government like Iran. A theocracy where the ruler as a representative of God, and where disagreeing with him is heresy."

guy A : "No, not like Iran, Iran is shiite."(!!!!!)

Me : "Great talking to you guys, sorry, got to go, bye."

I had to leave because obviously both had simply no idea what they where talking about. That is why I rarely ever talk about politics. Many people here in egypt are as deluded. They tend to confuse politics with religion, and you end up not knowing what you where talking about in the first place.

I have to ask this though. What led to this wide spread ignorance of basic politics in our society?

continued....

Mubarak's 3 episode saga.

There isn't much to say about Mr. Presidents 3 episode saga. As expected it was another one of his glorious let downs. The first 2 episodes where nothing but reminiscence about his old war stories with exagerations of his personal achievments. The entire War of 1973 was truncated into the role (his greatness) played as airforce commander. Emad eldin Adib was a disappointment as well, consistently showering compliments on Mubaraks achievments and persistently asking "What do you think would have happened if another less competent president was in your place?". Like duh! What kind of a question is that?

The last episode was the last straw. When Emad el din asked Mr. President about the deteriorating economic conditions and how common people are facing great hardships putting food on the table and clothes on their children, his answer was something like this : "There's really not much we can do, we hope to do more but we can't" and went on reiterating rediculous reasons why, "We er.. have the growning population and the national debt and the instability of the region (bla, bla, bla)" What??! How about leaving the job to someone who COULD do something. I felt as if he was being asked for charity.

Another thing he said was that he did not support multiple party governing, as Mr.Mubarak put it "they tend to form coalition governments rather than a single solid government", he argues "This definitely would be counter to the interest of the country, because the different parties would be persuing their own interest rather than the collective greater good." My God, as if a quarter of a century his party where not persuing their self interests, with utter disregard for the rest of the country. For those out there who don't know, the presidents NDP hold more than 85% of the seats in parliment and are collectively known to the public as the moafiqoon (aye) bunch. If the government asked them to jump off a cliff, they'd do it in a heart beat. How they get elected into parliment is a different story.

The episode was ended with a rather anti-climactic "I'm not sure if i'm going to run again" with a sly smirk telling he would.

In conclusion : The president realy showed off his senility and incompetence in this one. I think he was way better off without this piece of juvenile propaganda.